Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 20 brokers · 2076 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-20.
The Street models Pfizer's revenue essentially flat in FY-2026 (~$61.8B) before a mid-single-digit decline — roughly $59.5B in FY-2027 and $54.8B in FY-2028 — as Eliquis, Ibrance and other franchises lose exclusivity. An oncology ramp led by Padcev and a small-but-rising pipeline are the modeled offsets; the total-revenue consensus is tight even as brokers disagree sharply on the mix.
Loss-of-exclusivity is the story: Eliquis, Ibrance and Xtandi all roll off
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOE cliff | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eliquis alliance revenue - IH | $7.99bn | $8.33bn | $7.09bn | $3.66bn | +4.3% | 20 |
| Ibrance | $4.10bn | $3.85bn | $2.90bn | $1.56bn | -6.0% | 20 |
| Xtandi | $2.21bn | $2.01bn | $1.31bn | $586.35m | -9.0% | 20 |
| Xeljanz | $1.04bn | $710.46m | $475.49m | $333.75m | -31.4% | 20 |
| COVID | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Comirnaty | $4.01bn | $3.19bn | $2.98bn | $2.73bn | -20.5% | 20 |
| Paxlovid | $2.66bn | $1.26bn | $1.20bn | $1.13bn | -52.5% | 20 |
Padcev leads the offset; Nurtec and Abrysvo build while Vyndaqel plateaus
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Padcev | $1.98bn | $2.50bn | $2.95bn | $3.39bn | +26.5% | 20 |
| Nurtec ODT | $1.47bn | $1.71bn | $1.93bn | $2.13bn | +16.3% | 20 |
| Abrysvo | $769.80m | $1.03bn | $1.11bn | $1.23bn | +33.8% | 20 |
| Plateau | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vyndaqel | $6.41bn | $6.75bn | $6.57bn | $6.19bn | +5.3% | 20 |
The pipeline is the swing factor — near-zero today, ~$1.3B modeled by FY-2028
Modeled total pipeline revenue rises from essentially nothing in FY-2025 to a ~$1.3B median by FY-2028, but the range runs from $0 to ~$4.4B. It is the single least-settled line in the set and the swing factor for whether the top line stabilizes.
Where broker models disagree
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total pipeline revenue | FY-2028E | $1.29bn | $885.30m–$2.33bn | $0.00–$4.41bn | 20 |
| Vyndaqel | FY-2028E | $6.07bn | $5.64bn–$6.71bn | $5.20bn–$7.54bn | 20 |
| Eliquis alliance revenue - IH | FY-2028E | $3.62bn | $3.34bn–$3.86bn | $2.30bn–$5.32bn | 20 |
| Ibrance | FY-2028E | $1.58bn | $1.30bn–$1.69bn | $871.27m–$2.55bn | 20 |
Coverage is deep and fresh on the base, but the pipeline lines thin out
Most product lines carry 18–20 brokers with revisions into July 2026, so the revenue base is well covered. The pipeline and new-product lines that determine the offset to the cliff fall to a handful of brokers — and near zero in FY-2025–26 — so those forecasts are thinner than the headline coverage implies.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.